India’s Democracy Triumphs: A New Dawn Post Modi-Shah Era

India Saves Its Democracy: A Beacon of Hope for World Peace and the End of the Modi-Shah Era

The world will remember this day, June 4th, 2024. It will be etched in history for the people of India who chose peace, progress, and truth over hatred, division, and dictatorship. On the night of June 4th, the results were clear: the Modi-led BJP did not secure the mandate, scattering at 240 seats out of the 272 needed. This marks a significant blow to Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, who have consistently secured mandates since 2014, with BJP securing 303 seats in 2019.

In contrast, the opposition’s strength has increased dramatically. In a state like Uttar Pradesh, the NDA secured 43 seats, nearly a majority. The NDA, a coalition of 38 parties, garnered 293 seats out of 543, while the India Alliance (comprising Congress, SP, TDP, and others) secured 232 seats.

As usual, the vote-counting process was slow, and even after 24 hours, the Election Commission of India had not updated its full and final data on its website. However, it is certain that the BJP hasn’t secured the mandate.

Who will form the Government? And will it be stable?

The biggest question now is: who will be the next Prime Minister of India? Before delving into this, let’s explore a few scenarios.

Scenario One: Narendra Modi could take the oath as Prime Minister with the alliance of Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP (15 seats) and the JDU (14 seats). These parties will likely demand significant portfolios, leaving BJP with no choice but to agree. Imagine a situation where Modi doesn’t have the same absolute power to make decisions as he did when BJP had a full majority. Political experts doubt that anyone can sustain a long-term partnership with Modi and Shah. This election also revealed internal dissatisfaction within the BJP itself. Senior leaders like Nitin Gadkari, Yogi Adityanath, Shivraj Singh Chauhan, and others, including the RSS, are unhappy with Modi and Shah’s leadership. There’s a strong possibility that BJP leaders may demand a new PM candidate, complicating matters for Modi.

If BJP forms the Government with the help of alliance parties, it is clear that this Government may fall within the next 90 days.

Scenario Two: If the India Alliance forms the Government with the help of TDP, JDU, and others, the first challenge is identifying the Prime Minister. Rahul Gandhi is the first choice of the INC (Indian National Congress), but others like Uddhav Thackeray and Mamta Banerjee are also potential candidates. Samajwadi Party, having won 36 seats, may propose Akhilesh Yadav for PM. Similarly, Nitish Kumar, who has aspired to be PM for a decade, could be candidates. There are many such questions and complexities.

In this situation, any group forming the Government would do so temporarily. Within a few months, these alliances might start fighting internally, leading to the Government’s collapse. It is unlikely that any party forming the Government today will be able to sustain it for the long term.

Is forming the Government for the India Alliance a Good Choice this Time?

This is the best time for the India Alliance to sit in opposition and wait for the right moment. The Indian National Congress and its allies should not rush to form the Government, as it might backfire soon. The public has shown faith in this election, voting consciously. If the India Alliance forms a government and then it collapses in a few months, it might erode public confidence. Instead, the India Alliance should strengthen itself and work for the people.

While we are expressing our opinions here, it is difficult to predict anything in advance when it comes to Indian politics. So, let’s wait and watch. Meanwhile, I can simply say, “Indians have saved their democracy, and this is what matters in the end.”