Doomsday for Myanmar’s Junta? Burmese President fears the country could get split into two.

On November 10th, Myanmar’s (military-installed) president, Myint Swe, expressed his apprehension regarding his fear that the country would split into two unless its military ‘Junta’ government urgently crushed the ethnic rebellions spawning in the country’s border areas. Many experts are labelling it as the doomsday for Myanmar’s Junta! 

The Tatmadaw (Myanmar’s military government) appears spooked as the writing on the wall suggests that the average civilian in Myanmar is livid with their undemocratic regime (hurting them for the last 30 months) and their suppression of the country’s most popular leader and their former elected State Counsellor, Aung Saan Suu Kyi. One can sense Tatmadaw’s desperation after observing how they have been allegedly using chemical weaponry (gas bombs) and conducting air strikes against their own civilians. 

Despite all these, the country’s under-trained rebellion groups have gotten the better of the Junta. The average Burmese citizen has had enough as they appear to be extending both financial and emotional support to the country’s indigenous ethnic rebellion groups who have confederated into a single group named “Three Brotherhood Alliance.” 

The infamous coup of 2021 and the rise of ethnic rebellion:

On February 1st, 2021, the elected State Counsellor of Myanmar, Aung Saan Suu Kyi and President Win Myint were thrown out of power by the Junta only months after Suu Kyi had unilaterally emerged as the most popular leader of her country.

After her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), won the General Elections of 2020 with a landslide victory by securing 86% of the votes, the Junta grew restless about Suu Kyi’s anti-military campaign and her flourishing popularity among the Burmese people. 

They tried every trick in their box to malign Suu Kyi’s legitimate claim for power by uttering unfounded claims of electoral manipulation by the Suu Kyi loyalists. In February 2021, the Junta placed Suu Kyi under house arrest, and since then, they have been squirming for external support to ratify their tyrannous regime.  

The ethnic groups had been longing for democratic governance for decades, and the coup of 2021 radicalised them to a fearful extent. Soon, the border provinces of Myanmar, thickly guarded with forests, served as the epicentre of the country’s armed insurgencies. The Shan province of Myanmar emerged as the cynosure of the rebellion. 

Soon, these ethnic insurgent groups (three mainly) formed the “Three Brotherhood Alliance.” This alliance comprises the Arakan Army, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance, and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army. According to reports, this anti-Junta alliance is estimated to be around 20 thousand strong. Augmented with popular support, they have been making staggering progress in launching offensives and overthrowing one military post after another in the country’s border regions and states.

Is it the end of the Junta?

The rebellion group has successfully captured over 8000-kilometre square area from the Junta. The rebel alliance has launched four offensives thus far and has dealt a lethal blow to the Junta’s nerve.  

The first offensive was launched on October 27th, under the name ‘Operation 1027,’ with support from fighters of the Rakhine State in South-west Myanmar. On November 7th, operation 1407 was launched, where the rebels captured the Kayah state in Southeast Myanmar. On November 13th, the Chin and Arakan resistance groups launched two further offensives. 

Presently, in Myanmar’s border areas, the Tatmadaw appears to have been virtually overpowered as the resistance forces have adopted an ultimatum against their regime. The rebels have acquired more than a hundred military posts by quashing the Junta in the north of Myanmar and have taken control of vital towns and trade routes of the region. 447 Junta personnel have thrown in the towel in the northern Shan state. Over the past few weeks, regions in Kayah, Chin, Rakhine, Mon, Sagaing, and Magway provinces of Myanmar have witnessed a civilian uprisal that could lead to a prolonged civil war.

As pro-democratic ethnic rebel groups continue to usurp more and more regions from the Junta’s control, there is a high chance that the Tatmadaw will withdraw from Mandalay to Nyapidaw and Yangon in South Myanmar, splitting the country into two! 

Trouble for India and other countries neighbouring Myanmar:

Whenever a civil war breaks out in the border regions of a country, neighbouring countries have to bear the burden of humanitarian crises and the influx of refugees. During the persecution of the Rohingya Muslims by the Tatmadaw, over one million refugees were provided asylum by their neighbouring countries. 

After the coup in 2021, India had to harbour more than 30 thousand refugees from Myanmar. During the recent unrest, reports suggest five thousand more refugees from the Chin region have entered the Indian state of Mizoram. Out of these refugees, 47 were Myanmar’s military personnel who crossed the Indo-Burmese border and surrendered themselves before the Indian police.  

Even more, than the perils of an imperative refugee crisis is the fact that the insurgent groups in Myanmar deal in drugs like opium and crystal meth to fund their cause. Hence, the civil war in Myanmar could potentially flare up the predicament of narco-terrorism in Northeast India. Not to forget that India already faces the perils of the ‘war in Manipur,’ India must look at the developments in Myanmar with great caution.