UP election to be a bipolar contest with BJP and allies versus Samajwadi Party and its allies
The Congress and the Bahujan Samaj Party, on the other hand, are currently on the back foot due to a lack of credible leaders capable of countering the strength of Yogi Adityanath and former Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav.
The forthcoming election in Uttar Pradesh is going to be a two pronged fight with BJP and its allies on one side and Mulayam Singh’s Samajwadi Party and its allies on the other side. The situation is very fluid and the floating votes will make the difference between victory and defeat.
A large section of farmers who are at loggerheads with the BJP, especially in eastern UP which has a sizeable Sikh population, could switch alliance to other parties. As for Congress and Bahujan Samaj Party, they are on the back foot now without any credible leaders who can take on the might of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath or former Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav.
BJP banking on the decision to revoke farm laws
The BJP was counting on the fact that the withdrawal of the farm bills will pacify the Jat voters who were spearheading the farmer protests. But the ground reality is that the farmers, especially in the eastern Uttar Pradesh, are not satisfied and have hardened their stance.
The Lakhimpur incident is also a thorn in the BJP side and the farmers have demanded that MoS Home, whose son is the prime accused in the killings, should be dismissed.
BJP again trying to polarize the electorate on religious lines
The BJP is once again hoping to polarize the electorate on religious lines. This fact can be gauged by the increasing vitriolic and communal speeches of the present Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath. However, he is not likely to find the going easy this time.
It is the spiralling prices of essential commodities which could prove to be the achilles heel for this government. Coupled with the anti-incumbency votes, it could very well through up a surprise in the forthcoming elections.
Adityanath has also increased the tempo of his speech and projecting himself as the protector of the majority community. He is also trying to magnify what he deems is the much improved law and order situation in UP.
Akhilesh Yadav is also conducting meetings at a feverish pace and said that this time the BJP will be uprooted from Uttar Pradesh. He accused the present government of increasing the hardships of the people. The Party is in advanced stages of discussion for sharing seats with Aam Aadmi Party and Rashtriya Lok Dal.