India’s Diplomatic Decline: Losing Neighbors to China’s Influence in South Asia
A Regional and Global Power Faces a Crisis of Clout in 2025.
Explore India’s diplomatic decline as neighbors pivot to China’s influence in South Asia and global forums like the G7 sideline Delhi. Can India reclaim its clout in 2025?
India’s diplomatic decline is stark. In 2014, Narendra Modi’s swearing-in as Prime Minister, with SAARC leaders at Rashtrapati Bhavan, screamed regional dominance. Fast forward to 2025, and India’s grip is slipping. Neighbors are flocking to China’s influence in South Asia, global powers snub India at forums like the G7, and domestic politics fuel anti-India vibes. Can India bounce back, or is this a deeper crisis?
South Asia’s Pivot: China’s Influence Grows
India’s diplomatic decline is clearest in South Asia. Modi’s 2014 SAARC invite was a flex, uniting leaders from Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, and beyond. Now, SAARC’s dead, stalled since the 2016 Uri attack spiked India-Pakistan tensions. Pakistan’s $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and India’s 2019 Kashmir move have cemented hostility. Nepal’s 2019 Kalapani border spat and Belt and Road deals with China have cooled ties. Sri Lanka, despite India’s $4 billion aid in 2022, leased Hambantota Port to China for 99 years. Maldives kicked out Indian troops after a pro-China shift in 2023. Bangladesh, post-2024 coup, ousted Sheikh Hasina—now exiled in India—facing criminal charges, ditching Mujibur Rahman’s currency image, and hosting 150 Chinese investors. China’s $9 trillion Belt and Road loans, with $940 billion owed by developing nations, have hooked South Asia, sidelining India’s influence.
G7 Snub: India’s Global Star Dims
India’s diplomatic decline extends globally. In 2019, France’s G7 invite and India’s 2023 G20 presidency showcased its rise. But in 2025, Canada’s G7 summit skipped India, inviting Australia, Ukraine, and others. Canada’s Khalistani terrorism row plays a part, but the bigger issue is India’s fading clout. The U.S., once eyeing India to counter China’s influence in South Asia, now elevates Pakistan, a shift India hasn’t challenged—unlike Indira Gandhi’s 1971 defiance. India’s silence on U.S. visa bans and deportations, unlike China’s protests, screams diplomatic retreat.
Peacemaker No More: India’s Global Role Shrinks
India’s diplomatic decline hits its peacemaker status. During the Russia-Ukraine war, India balanced Moscow ties—importing oil, boosting BRICS—with Modi’s 2022 “not an era of war” call to Putin. Now, neither the West nor Ukraine taps India for mediation. Modi’s 2017 Israel visit broke from Non-Aligned Movement roots, irking Bangladesh and Maldives. As Russia leans on China and the U.S. reshapes Middle East ties, India’s sidelined.
Trade War Squeeze: Economic Edge Fades
The Xi Jinping-Donald Trump tariff clash underscores India’s diplomatic decline. U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum and tech restrictions hit India, yet it stays quiet, unlike China’s fiery pushback. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal’s Paris talks with Renault and EDF aim to keep India relevant, but China’s $940 billion loans to neighbors like Sri Lanka dwarf India’s $4 billion aid. India’s market, once a global magnet, is losing to China’s influence in South Asia.
Domestic Sparks: Politics Fuel Regional Rifts
India’s diplomatic decline ties to its domestic politics. The 2019 Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and Kashmir’s Article 370 revocation sparked outrage in Bangladesh and Maldives, fanning anti-India sentiment. Hindu nationalism paints India as less secular, pushing neighbors toward China’s influence in South Asia. Modi’s “Neighbourhood First” policy is overshadowed by India’s perceived strong-arm tactics, like surgical strikes and border disputes.
Small Steps Forward: Can India Recover?
India’s fighting its diplomatic decline. Modi’s Maldives trip and Paraguay’s President’s visit—the second since 1961—signal outreach. Deals on terrorism and cybercrime are wins, but tiny against China’s influence in South Asia. Modi’s 2014-2019 global tours hit 70+ countries, but post-2024, with Trump’s return and BRICS wobbles, India’s skipping key meets. Afghanistan’s 2021 Taliban shift crushed India’s investments, with China and Pakistan stepping in.
Conclusion: Time to Rewrite India’s Playbook
India’s diplomatic decline is a wake-up call. The 2014 SAARC party and G20 glory showed its potential, but 2025 reveals a grim reality: neighbors embracing China’s influence in South Asia, global forums ghosting India, and domestic politics stoking distrust. India’s $5 trillion economy and 1.4 billion-strong market still have pull, but it needs bold moves—economic ties, cultural bridges, and a louder global voice—to reclaim its spot. The world’s glued to the U.S.-China chessboard; India can’t be a pawn.
